Having been in finance, I still follow the markets very closely. Economics and finance are vital in everyday life, especially as a business owner. Whether you realize it or not, almost all your decisions you make on a daily basis will factor future prospects into consideration. Hence why you should always have a view on where the market is headed.
So far this year, the stock market has experienced the worst start to a calendar year in history. This includes the turmoil we experienced in early 2009.
However, I’m optimistic and still very much bullish.
The stock market is pricing in a large probability that the US will reenter a recession in the near future. My take? I highly doubt it.
The past three winters have all seen very cold climates across the greater part of the United States. Polar Vortexes and weather patterns were to blame. This year has been the complete opposite for most of the country: mild to warm temperatures have been observed, especially in the Northeast.
What’s weather have to do with it? Everything.
Warm weather promotes economic activity, especially in the construction industry – America’s bread and butter. It also keeps people from just staying in doors all winter. Therefore, for those who don’t just stay home and online shop that means a higher probability they will be out and about spending money.
Fundamentals in the US economy are still strong and I expect a turnaround in this recent market turmoil in the next couple weeks. As for housing – I don’t see any respite in the recent price appreciation. At least not yet.
But, that’s just my two cents.
Home pictured above is our Shoshone Residence.